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Topic: what is Iraq doing?

MauiMountainBoarder
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There are all these signs that the US is going to attack Iraq. But I have not heard any news of an Iraqi military build up or anything of that sort. Maybe they have biological or chemical weapons capable of killing thousands of US soldiers so there not too worried about and attack.

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~LET'S SEE HOW YOUR "SUPER FAST" LITTLE SPORTS CAR HANDLES THE MUD!~

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-Ma$oN-

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the usa will have a hard time getting to iraq, simply because all of the arab nations are finally growing some backbone....

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-ReDeeMeR

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Iraq is engaged in an dimplomatic offencive against the US, designed to isolate it, so far Saddam is winning this war, against an clueless, inexperienced, dumb enemyAKA Bush.
As for an Iraqi military build up, I have not heard of an American build-up yet, given the fact that its troops based in Saudi A cannot be used for an attack against Iraq

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Bota99
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Iraq has been pulling its best Air Defense batteries into Baghdad itself .. instead of out in the desert like during Desert Storm and the Republican Guard is all pretty much stationed there as well now. They plan on forcing the US to have to fight an Urban Battle this time.

[ August 26, 2002, 05:26: Message edited by: Bota99 ]

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Bota99
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I apologize for the length of this - it is very long so be forewarned, but it was from the New York Times which requires you to register an account online so i could not just link to it for you, and was a very good article about what it is believed Iraq can do to try to stop an invasion - it seems they will rely on a Stalingrad type defense - though that counts on the fact his troops will still support him when the US is on Baghdads doorstep...

Iraq Said to Plan Tangling the U.S. in Street Fighting

WASHINGTON, Aug. 25 — President Saddam Hussein of Iraq will try to compensate for his armed forces' glaring weaknesses by raising the specter of urban warfare if the Bush administration moves to attack the Iraqi government, according to Pentagon officials and former United States government experts.

In anticipation of an eventual American attack, Iraq has already started military preparations, they say.

Iraqi forces have been digging defensive positions for military equipment around Baghdad. The Iraqi military has also been moving air defense units around the country and dispersing army units in the field to make them less vulnerable to a surprise air attack.

During the Persian Gulf war of 1991, the Iraqi troops who captured Kuwait dug themselves into positions in the open desert. That made them vulnerable to allied air strikes and the fast-paced attacks by the United States' better trained and more maneuverable ground forces.

But this time Mr. Hussein's goal is not so much to hold ground as to hold power. That means that Iraq can be expected to use the threat of urban warfare to try to deter the United States from attacking in the first place and to raise the political costs if Washington decides to press ahead with an invasion.

"Iraq has no hope of prevailing in a straight military fight, and after Desert Storm the Iraqis probably realize that," said Kenneth M. Pollack, the director of national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former C.I.A. analyst of the Iraqi military.

"Their best and most likely strategy will be to try to create the political conditions that would lead the Bush administration to think twice about an attack," Mr. Pollack said. "And one way to do that is to make us believe that we are going to face a Mesopotamian Stalingrad."

Current and former American military officers expressed confidence that the United States would ultimately triumph, but differed about how difficult a military campaign would be, particularly if American forces were compelled to fight in Iraq's cities. Their assessments depend not only on the quality of Iraq's forces but on the more fundamental question of how many Iraqi units would remain loyal to Mr. Hussein.

"I think it is a serious mistake to underestimate the current combat capability of Iraq military to include air defense," said Gen. Joseph P. Hoar of the Marines, who before his retirement led the United States Central Command, which has responsibility for planning and executing American military operations in the Middle East. "The major lesson of the gulf war is that Iraq was no match for U.S. forces in the open desert," he said. "That would lead me to believe that they will use built-up areas and barriers where they can to make up for their lack of mobility and technology. We are going to prevail. The question is risk."

Gen. Barry McCaffrey of the Army, who led the 24th Mechanized Division against Iraqi forces in the gulf war before his retirement, was more sanguine about the course of a American military campaign against Iraq.

"My assessment is that if you put enough pressure on them, they will come apart and won't fight," General McCaffrey said in an interview. "The notion that they will retreat into the built-up areas and turn them into a kind of Stalingrad is laughable."

"I don't think they can handle the synergy of American military power, the violence and speed," he said. "A war could entail a few thousand U.S. casualties. But my honest judgment is that if we are serious about this, it would take 90 days to build up our forces and 21 days for the campaign. I think they will unravel."

Iraq's Weakened Military

There is no question that the Iraqi military is a pale reflection of the Iraqi force that rushed into Kuwait in August 1990. Because of the United Nations embargo, the Iraqis have not been able to buy major new weapons.

Meanwhile, the United States has upgraded its military with more technologically advanced reconnaissance systems and precision weapons. The Iraqis have had difficulty obtaining spare parts, substantially reducing the military's readiness and its ability to move forces around the country.

The Iraqi Army, with a strength of 350,000, is about a third of its size at the start of the gulf war. It is made up of 17 regular army divisions and six divisions of the elite Republican Guard.

American intelligence officials say Iraq's regular army forces are kept far from the capital for fear that they might be involved in a coup against Mr. Hussein. That deployment enables them to contain indigenous threats but means that they can directly contribute little to the defense of Iraq's capital.

Eleven of the regular army divisions are involved in defending northern Iraq, close to the Kurdish-controlled areas. The remaining six divisions are focused on suppressing the resistance of Shiite Muslims in the south. Long stretches of Iraq's border with Iran are virtually undefended, a pattern that suggests that the Iraqi government has concluded that the internal opposition is the greater threat.

There is ample evidence that morale in the regular army is not high and that not all units can be relied on to fight. In 1998, when the Clinton administration mounted its series of air strikes against suspected sites of weapons of mass destruction, many Iraqi soldiers deserted, according to American intelligence officials.

The army's logistical network is also in tatters, analysts say, making it hard to quickly move troops around the country, a decided disadvantage if the army confronts fast-paced American forces. In 2000, when Mr. Hussein ordered four of his army divisions to move west toward the Syrian border, and therefore toward Israel, as a gesture of support for the Palestinians, logistical problems arose and the deployment was never carried out.

In contrast to the regular army, the Republican Guard divisions are more reliable, though even here the loyalty of Republican Guard officers is not assured. Two Republican Guard divisions, the Adnan and the Nebuchadnezzar, are deployed in the north to buttress the regular army deployments there.

But the key Republican Guard deployment is near Baghdad. Three armored Republican Guard divisions — the Hammurabi, Al Nida and Medina — are stationed in a ring around the capital. The capital itself is defended by the Special Republican Guard, the most reliable unit, which numbers around 15,000 and also guards other presidential installations, including Mr. Hussein's compound in his home village, Tikrit.

Even the much-touted Republican Guard has suffered as a result of the sanctions. During the gulf war the Republican Guard was well equipped with T-72 tanks, and even some regular army units had T-72's. Now, however, not all the Republican Guard tank regiments are at full strength and some are outfitted with older T-55's.

The Iraqi Air Force numbers about 300 combat aircraft, about half as many as it had during the gulf war, officials say. Iraqi pilots flew some of their best planes to Iran during the gulf war to protect them from American and allied air strikes, and they have never been returned.

Iraq's best aircraft are the French-made Mirage F-1's and Soviet-made MIG-25's. According to American intelligence, the Iraqi Air Force is flying more often these days thanks to spare parts smuggled from Syria. But Iraq has relatively few pilots, who get relatively little flying time. They could be quickly overwhelmed by American air power.

Iraqi air defenses are capable, American analysts say. That is because Iraq has managed to recreate its network of air defense command centers using fiber-optic cables from China.

During the NATO confrontation with Yugoslavia in 1999, Iraq's air defense commanders were in contact with the Serbs, who are presumed to have shared intelligence on American air tactics.

Furthermore, Iraqi air defense forces get plenty of practice firing at American and British planes patrolling the northern and southern no-flight zones established by the allies after the gulf war. While the Iraqis have shot down some reconnaissance drones, the United States has yet to lose a manned aircraft as a result of any of those patrols.

Iraq has virtually no navy, and it would find it difficult to stop the United States Navy from operating in the Persian Gulf, American intelligence officials say. Iraq does not have any ships capable of laying mines, though the Iraqis can still set mines adrift in the gulf. It does have a handful of ground-based missile-launchers for firing missiles at enemy ships.

Administration officials do not know how many Al Hussein Scud missiles Iraq has. Estimates range from just a few to as many as 40, officials say. In addition to 390-mile-range Husseins, Iraq has made Al Samoud missiles, which have a range of 90 miles.

During the Persian Gulf war, Iraq's basic strategy was to produce a stalemate on the battlefield in the hope that the United States would negotiate over the future of Kuwait.

Baghdad's New Strategy

Iraq's current strategy is somewhat different, analysts say. Overmatched militarily, Iraq now regards its best option to be raising the political and military costs of an attack for the United States and any allies it may be able to attract, in the hope that Iraq's foes will lose their stomach for an invasion, analysts say.

Iraq has also sought to inflame the Arab-Israeli conflict by providing money to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers. Its calculation is that Washington will find it too difficult to assemble a coalition for action against Iraq if the Middle East is in crisis.

If war breaks out, Iraq may also try to draw Israel into the fighting and therefore create problems for any American-Arab coalition, a strategy Iraq tried in the gulf war. Iraq could try to fire Scud missiles at Israel and Persian Gulf states.

Iraq's presumed stocks of chemical and biological weapons are a wild card. Iraq may try to use Scud missiles to deliver weapons of mass destruction. The warheads Iraq had at the time of the 1991 conflict detonated on impact and were not well designed for disseminating biological or chemical agents.

American officials say they do not know if Iraq has developed new warhead designs. Iraq could also try to use its warplanes or helicopters to spray germ agents.

American forces would try to neutralize those threats, officials say, by occupying potential Scud launching areas, seizing command of the skies and probably warning Iraqi troops that any forces that carried out orders to use weapons of mass destruction would held accountable.

Another option is urban warfare. Iraq's basic strategy, an American official said, is to disperse its forces, endure the American airstrikes and then move into urban centers.

"There are some indications that they are going to dig themselves in in population centers," said Walter P. Lang, who was the chief Defense Intelligence Agency analyst on the Middle East during the gulf war.

"It is the only real method that makes any sense for them," he said. "They have to do something to maximize the situation so that their local defenses can wear us down. But the effect will depend on the quality of the units. The military has to fight well for this to be effective."

Iraqi opposition groups say Mr. Hussein has set up a special emergency committee to control security in and around the capital. The committee reportedly is made up of Mr. Hussein's son Qusay; Abed Hamid Mahmud, a top aide to the Iraqi leader; and Kamal Mustafa, the head of the Special Republican Guard.

Soon after Sept. 11, Iraq began dispersing some of its troops, apparently fearing that Washington would blame it for the terrorist attacks in New York and Virginia. But in recent weeks there has been an increase of military activity around Baghdad, United States officials say.

At the same time, the Iraqis have not canceled military leaves or taken other emergency preparations. That indicates that Mr. Hussein has judged correctly that an attack is not yet at hand. The Iraqi government is also concerned with ferreting out possible American intelligence agents and preventing efforts to establish contacts with dissident factions.

The effectiveness of Iraq's military strategy will depend heavily on the extent to which its troops remain loyal and the Iraqi people back their government instead of welcoming their "liberators."

Maintaining the morale of Iraqi forces and the support of the population is expected to be difficult if it becomes clear that most of Iraq's territory outside the capital is under the control of the United States.

"The military machine we face now in Iraq is the same one we faced in 1991, only now it is much smaller and weaker," a Pentagon official said. "They have never been able to make good their losses in the Persian Gulf war, and sanctions have taken a toll.

"The extent to which they will defend in the outer cities, particularly in the Shiite-dominated south, will be less than as you go north. But they do believe that urban warfare is a vulnerability of U.S. and coalition forces, and they are likely to shift the battle to urban terrain."

[ August 26, 2002, 07:56: Message edited by: Bota99 ]

Posts: 190 (0.03 per day) | From: Midwest US | Registered: Apr 2002 (6145 days) | IP: Logged |

2-D..

Does this rag smell like chloroform to you?
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Somalia

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*Coming soon: Something so awesome to look at it will make your eyeballs explode*

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-gbotto600-
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A flight of B-1B Lancers and B-2 Spirits can have the Iraqi C&C system on its knees within 24 hours

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Decima MAS

\
When ancient Rome was near defeat,
the invincible Tenth Legion was raised:
they beat the barbarians on the battlefield
and Rome gained peace with honour again.
When the traitor, on September the eighth,
left the fatherland in infamy,
the Tenth Flotilla was raised from the sea
and it brought weapons at the cry for honour!

Oh our Tenth Flotilla,
you that mocked England,
you victorious on Alexandria,
Malta, Souda and Gibraltar,
you already victorious upon the sea,
now even on the dry land
you will win!

To you Italian ships, stolen from us
not in battle but by treason,
and to you, our prisoners and dead brothers,
we swear:
we swear that we'll came back,
let this be God's and the Flag's will.
We swear that we'll fight
until we obtain an honourable peace!

Posts: 7713 (1.19 per day) | From: NJ | Registered: May 2001 (6472 days) | IP: Logged |

Bronx

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That aint the problem though, the problem will be the fighting on the land that you have to do against them.

A British labour MP, who is a supporter of Iraq interviewed Sadam, who appealingly seemed most offended by Britain. Iraq was originally set up like Britain, they have our plug sockets, they have our red double deck buses. Hell even the first chemical weapons he used on the Kurds were sold to him by the English ... not to mention the super gun, and Iraq wouldn’t be Iraq if it wasn’t for Britain ... slightly off point, but most countries love the British and hate America ... if only they knew how underhand a country we really were ... ah well that’s what makes us British!!! Rule Britannia!!

Anyway Sadam actually quoted the Churchill we shall fight them on the beaches etc saying how they will fight them from roof tops and so on and so forth.
Although a great majority in Iraq will more than likely not fight much and see Sadam toppled the closer you get to Baghdad the tougher the fighting will get. It is not just a matter of hitting his C&C structures, as most of these are built next to or underneath hospitals or civilian structures.

Getting precision hits in on Iraqi forces will only cause masses of collateral damage, a factor which will only force to alienate America more if it does not wait for UN backing.
And also upon this there will be masses of casualties of forces that enter and try to occupy Iraq, with the formation of an army of suicide bombers ready to give up their lives against the Americans they so love to hate.

I am becoming dubious of entering Iraq, not only for those reasons but simply because of the trouble it has the potential to cause. The Israel/Palestine situation will by no means benefit, neither will American relations to those countries who still have some deals with them. I was watching Fox news today, an American news channel who’s opinions I do not personally like to much. During the phone ins the greater majority of Americans were now actually turning against Saudi Arabia, one of the only countries with decent relations, where an attack would possibly come from.
Not only this but FOX decided to air facts that 15 of the 19 11th Sept terrorists came from Saudi … personally I thought it would not be good to turn the American public against one of the only allies they have left in the area.

Apart from his sexual affairs, up until Clinton left I had respect for American politics, this was until the ‘greatest democracy on earth’ let the guy with less experience and less actual votes in …. Hmmm the word hypocrisy again springs to mind. With the latest scandals what ever time I had to listen to American domestic, let alone foreign policy has diminished.

Before some of you get defensive I am not having a go at you general public yanks, you are all a great bunch of people (although not quite English enough) I despise your leaders and political system.

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